On Defensive Pessimism

On Defensive Pessimism

Interesting piece from Charlie Warzel on the idea that being “defensively pessimistic” is not the healthy choice.

From the article:

Often, Mr. Markman noted, we are deploying something called “defensive pessimism,” which is a strategy our brains use in stressful situations where we can control the outcome, like, say, a big exam. “It’s a great coping strategy when you have agency because being defensively pessimistic forces you to study more,” Mr. Markman said. But in circumstances out of our control, it is an example of the mind working against its best interests and creating more anxiety.

Superstitious types might cringe at this point.

But Mr. Markman said it’s actually better to adopt an optimistic mind-set in the run-up to the returns. “Defensive pessimism is creating a fictitious state. You’re feeling pessimistic but you don’t really believe it. Deep down you think your candidate will win, but you’re telling yourself they won’t, so when the actual outcome happens it’ll hurt less. But that’s not how it works. So really you’ll be paying the price twice. Once for anticipatory period and again if the results don’t go how you want,” he said.

Kate Sweeny, a professor of psychology at the University of California, Riverside who studies the psychology of waiting, told me that there’s a difference between defensive pessimism and bracing for the worst. We can prepare so as not to be surprised by a negative outcome. That doesn’t mean we can’t also hold out hope and feel optimistic.

“Bracing for the worst makes sense when you lack agency,” she said. “We see it in even the most optimistic people because it protects us and also elevates the experience of good news.”